PANEL XI |
Social and Historical Dynamics: Patterns, Trends, Mechanisms, and Mathematical Models
Convenors: Andrey Korotayev, Daria Khaltourina
(Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Moscow, Russia)
The recent decade has evidences the transition from verbal theories of social and historical dynamics to the empirically testable mathematical models of these processes. The standard scientific methods have been shown to be applicable to their study. The panel is aimed at discussion of both the further ways of the introduction of scientific methods into the study of history, and the concrete results achieved within this direction by the moment. The panel addresses the issues of general theory of social evolution as well as its applied aspects. A special attention is paid to the mathematical models of historical processes; however, the papers not applying such models are also welcomed.
^ Svetlana R. Bekmuratova (Krasnoyarsk State University, Russia) Michael G. Sadovsky (Institute of Biophysics, Krasnoyarsk, Russia) What Do They Really Watch? Content Analysis of Up-to-Date Regional Broadcasting in Comparison to the Federal Channels
Televison is the key issue in mass communication. It both represent a reality, and produces it. The Soviet mode of TV broadcasting yielded in a peculiar pattern of perception by the audience. The Russian society still inherits a lot from it. Development of independent bradcasters results in an improvement of the reception pattern at the up-to-date Russian audience, while some inportant peculiarities are still conspired both from the broadcasters, and media research community. We studied the typical, most stable and integral patterns and presentations peculiar for various broadcasters, both regional and federal ones. The explore both the word frequency pattern and carried out the content analysis of the texts of the news. Firstly, the bi-modal distribution of news episodes over their duration was found. Secondly, the sets of the most frequent words were compared, for various combinations of broadcasters. It was found, the broadcasters differ in the pattern of such words distribution; a classification of the boradcasters was developed over these patterns. Thirdly, the sets of unique (or specific) words were studied, for each broadcaster. The sets observed over the same event reported by the individual broadcaster allow identifying them, and yield the basis for content analysis of the messages. The content analysis exhibits its own distinctive pattern of the broadcaster proximity in the space of concepts, differring from that one observed in the space of word frequency. Besides, the content analysis reveals the archetypes of some concepts of the organisation of social institutions persisting at the modern Russian society, e.g., power, state, violence, charity, leadership, and some other. Comparison of regional broadcasters to the federal ones carried out due to content analysis reveals the violence exposure level the broadcasters admit in their news reports.
^ Sergey N. Grinchenko (Institute of the Problems of Informatics, Moscow, Russia) History of Civilization as Meta-Evolution Process of the Hierarchical Search-Optimization System of Humankind (Cybernetic Model)
It is offered to investigate historical process of the Civilization formation on Earth, considering Humankind as hierarchical system of a special kind (search-optimization) and concretizing this representation on the basis of the terminology, concepts and formal toolkit of technical cybernetics language. Namely, the mechanism of hierarchical adaptive search optimization of power character target criteria) is examined as “internal” (immanent) mechanism of Humankind hierarchical system organizing it adaptive behaviour. The “meta-evolution” concept – procedure of escalating of levels/circles number in system in a course of its natural development is entered. This procedure forms as hierarchical ideal “carcass” (“skeleton”) of social-technological system (“man-artificial” nature), and ideal “benchmark points” of its occurrence historical process. It is postulated, that the social-technological meta-evolution “primary factors” are the information factors: for herd of before-hominid (calculated sizes of “ideal” hierarchical system in a range from 64 m down to 28 cm) – “before-social communications”, for bottom Paleolithic community (from 970 m down to 1,8 cm) – “public proto-memory”, for middle Paleolithic / Paleolithic and Mesolithic community (from 15 km down to 1,2 mm) – “proto-speech/proto-language”, for Neolithic community (from 222 km down to 80 microns) – “proto-writing”, for industrial community (from 3370 km down to 5 microns) – “proto-technology of the information duplicating” (typography), for information-1 (computer) community (from 51 thousand km down to 350 nanometers) – “computer proto-technology”, for information-2 (network) community (from 770 thousand km down to 23 nanometers) – “network proto-technology”, information-3 community (from 11,7 million km down to 1,5 nanometer) – “proto-nanotechnology”, etc. Thus, within the framework of offered model to each of the specified communities there corresponds the hierarchical system distinguishing from others by number of tiers and by the typical (determined by calculated manner) spatial and temporary (behavioural) characteristics.
^ Leonid E. Grinin (Uchitel Publishers, Volgograd, Russia) The Periodization of World History and Mathematics
The mathematical approach has been long in use in history. However, the usage of mathematical methods for the periodization of World History has been disregarded although time as a factor of social development is quite suitable for mathematical analysis. After all, time cycles of different duration are actively studied, for instance, in economics. And the cycles underlying the periodization of history are not fundamentally different from other time cycles with regard to the possibility of their mathematical analysis. The search for mathematical dependencies in the already existing periodization can serve a proof of its productivity and also be the basis for some discreet forecasts. It is convenient to present the historical process as four stages of evolution, with production revolutions – agrarian, industrial and scientific-informational ones –serving as boundaries. Correspondingly the first stage is connected with societies with subsistence economy, the second – the agrarian-trade one, the third – industrial, the fourth stage – with scientific-information economy. The duration of the first stage (between 40-10 thousand years ago) is about 30 thousand years; of the 2nd one – from 10 thousand years ago to the mid-fifteenth century – for about 9,400 years; the 3rd stage lasted from 1430 to 1950s (i.e. 550 years); the duration of the 4th stage – is about 130-150 years (it is not over yet, by now it has lasted for 50 years and presumably will last for more 80-100 years). Thus, the periodization under my consideration is based on the idea of repeated cycles of development, each following cycle, however, being shorter than the preceding one because of the acceleration of historical development. Every stage of historical process has its own cycle of development consisting of 6 phases. At the same time: a) the unfolding of each stage in time has some repeated peculiarities presented at the graphs as exponential curves; b) the progress of the whole historical process expressed in the indicated four stages can be also presented as an exponential dependence; c) there exist some persistent mathematical proportions between the duration of phases within each stage of historical process; d) the analysis of the cycle demonstrates that at each stage there are repeated points of acceleration of development connected with production revolution and the increase of general acceleration of historical development. And this can be clearly seen at the graphs; e) the analysis of stable proportions and peculiarities of the cycle allows some forecasts of the future (the 4th stage and in particular the duration of its phases).
^ Daria Khaltourina (Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Moscow, Russia) Reconsidering Weber: Literacy of the Spirit of Capitalism
Max Weber suggested that Protestant (especially Calvinist) ethics was a significant factor of capitalist transformation. We suggest that Protestantism has promoted the economic development with insisting on the necessity of reading the Bible in native languages and, thus increasing literacy rates. There is a strong and significant correlation between the literacy rate in the beginning of modernization era and per capita value of GDP in the respective countries in our days. The relationship between literacy and economic growth explains the economic success of the followers of other versions of Protestantism (in addition to Calvinism), as well as Judaism, Confucianism and some branches of Buddhism.
^ Alexandr A. Kazankov (Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Moscow, Russia) Factors of Ethnic Identity Formation
Military defeat of a side in ethnical conflict creates the situation of the possible bifurcation in the development of the social norms. Before detailed consideration of this bifurcation though we ought to give a definition of the ethnic group and ethnos. I suggest to call a group of people having the structure of a population within which a set of structured collective behavioural stereotypes is passed from generation to generation an ethnic group. An ethnic group members of which are united by a quasi-populational group identities I suggest to call an ethnos. Such a quasi-populational identity I would call an ethnic identity. The paper presented here will deal with the formalization of the factor of the military defeat acting on the formation of an ethnic identity. Ethnic identity is formed by multiple factors which can be grouped in a number of clusters.
factors of natural character, e.g. ecology forming subsistence mode, e.g.–Russian agriculturalists versus Kypchak pastoralists (both groups retaining the corresponding traditions from the ancient past).
Factors of political character which interest me in the paper.
Example: in the past an ethnic group defeated in the military conflict and subjugated into a joint social system with the conquerors was normally forbidden to carry arms. Such a group would lose the system of explicit or implicit devices (e.g.–rituals) forming belligerence and courage in its youths.
This will change the behavioral stereotypes of individuals. An individual psychological quality can be measured experimentally, unlike the integral sum of responding qualities in a large-scale society. A procedure of a random selection from the general population can be organized instead. This paper is aimed to be a part of the general formalized theory of ethnicity, having in mind that ethnic identity is a kind of a function from a political system.
^ Svetlana Kobzeva (Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Moscow, Russia) Discourse-Analysis in Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Models
A. Event Data Analysis for Conflict Monitoring and Early Warning
During the last two decades, quantitative event data collectors have made enormous progress: in popularity and especially in the means by which the information data is caught and coded. The modern progress in Hi Tech and information technologies made scholars overcome coding data by hand and go towards computer collecting and coding systems. The individual collections such as Rummell’s Dimensions of Nations, the Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB) and it’s continuation Global Event – Data System (GEDS), the Behavioral Correlates of War (BCOW) project, McClelland’s Word Events Interactions Survey (WEIS) during 1980s and 1990s had been widely used as data sources in the academic community. Automated data approach as an independent source of event data collecting and coding has appeared recently on the basis of advances and know-how in computational linguistics, computer software and the speed of hardware. In accordance with the development of automated data collecting and coding systems, the new models of monitoring and early warning has emerged.
B. Conflict Monitoring and Early Warning Systems
Contemporary field of international Peace and Conflict Studies presents the following systems of data analysis, developed by the leading nongovernment organizations, involved in peacebuilding, conflict resolution, crises monitoring and early warning:
Tool for Rapid Assessment of Complex Emergencies (TRACE) / Intellectual Research Design and Methodology of Virtual Research Associates.
Fast Monitoring and Early Warning System / Swiss Peace Center Research Methodology and Update.
Conflict Assessment System Tool (CAST) / Fund for Peace Methodology for Analytical Framework.
Humanitarian Early Warning System (HEWS) / UNOCHA Kanzas Event Data System/PANDA Protocol.
(Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies, Moscow, Russia)
Mathematical Models of Social Macroprocesses
and Periodization of the World System History
Recently developed mathematical models of the World System development suggest the following periodization of its history:
the macroepoch of hyperbolic growth (blow-up regime development), up to the 1960s – 1970s;
the macroepoch of the withdrawal from the blow-up regime.
Within this context the 1960s – 1970s could be regarded as a transitional period between the two macroepochs.
On the other hand, the blow-up regime development macroepoch can be subdivided into two relatively independent epochs of hyperbolic growth (the Older Hyperbola and the Younger Hyperbola), the border between which appears to be marked by the end of the Axial Age.
^ Igor E. Moskalev (Russian Academy for Civil Service by the President of Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia) Dynamic Modeling of Innovative Processes
Our society, being an object of governmental management, undergoes constant changes. The dynamics of social processes is often faster than it could be accommodated by the rigid structure of the state apparatus, which is no longer adequate to the changing social realities. The conception of innovative governmental management is suggested as an alternative to reformation or revolutionary transformation of the existing system. This conception is based on the idea of dynamic modeling of social processes and on the effective use of innovative potentials of the two connected systems: the state and the society. Social innovations are the products of social self-organization processes. Innovation is a certain divergence from evolutionary dynamics of a social system development. In our opinion, the methodology of sociosynergetics lets us describe the mechanisms and the principles of social innovation. Innovation is a new element that actively embodies itself into the existing structure of social system. However, a truly new items cannot be described in terms of stable systems and approaches. They contain elements of unpredictability and contingency, and they also do not fit the existing standards and criteria. Thus, innovations open a system, bring there elements of unpredictability and contingency; new possibilities are accompanied with new risks. An adequate expertise of innovative processes requires not strict just boundaries and selection instruments, but the methodology of dynamic modeling of innovation processes, as well as playing different scenarios. Information base for modeling and expertise of innovation processes should be monitoring system, which should identify the dynamics of positive and negative changes in a society. This requires the formation of a system of innovation processes indicators.
^ Sergey A. Nefedov (Institute of History and Archeology, Ekaterinburg, Russia) The Theory of Demographic Cycles and Russian Revolution
Neomalthusian theory of demographic cycles approves, that a growth of population causes a fall of consumption. When the consumption comes nearer to a hungry level, the society enters into a zone of social instability and the population demands a realization of social reforms for a increase of consumption. A poor harvest or a war aggravate the situation and a revolution occurs, if the government refuses to make these reforms. Нad Russian revolution malthusian character? The diagrams of consumption from my report speak that it was so.
^ Evgeniy A. Shinakov (Briansk State University, Russia) Mechanisms of Hierarchy Formation and Power Legitimation in Ancient Rus
In the process of comparative study of different types of historical sources two groups of mechanisms of hierarchy formation and power legitimation in the Ancient Rus were defined: 1) “plutocratic” (trading), genealogical, military-resistance, treating (contracting), military-integrative mechanisms; 2) military-repressing (“ritual conflict”), legislative, military-conquering, marriage-relative, ideological, military-defensive, integrative-demographical mechanisms. Mechanisms of the first group functioned during the period of consolidation of different types of chiefdoms into “barbarian” power with two-level hierarchy (second half of IX century). Mechanisms of second group appeared during the process of transformation of “barbarian” power to the early state (second half of X century). The first group is connected with the struggle between the Varangians that exploited tribes and chiefdoms (“kniazeniya”) along the “East Way” and local nobility for treasury and sovereignty. Ancient Rus was created as a result of treaty between the local elite and part of the Varangians and was greatly expanded during Oleg’s reign. Second group of mechanisms begins by the “ritual” massacre of seceded Drevlian’ chiefdom and was immediately followed by reforms of Olga. The centralizing activity of two sons of Swiatoslaw was followed by complex reforms of Vladimir I and was finalized by legislative activity of Yaroslaw the Wise that finally formalized social structure and hierarchy of Old Russian early state.
^ Vitaliy G. Sholokhov (Russian State Commercial and Economic University, Moscow, Russia) Phenomenon of Force in the Authority Structures
Despite interdisciplinary the nature of such sciences as the theory systems, cybernetics, the theory complexity, the theory of the networks they proved to be incapable to open the concept “authorities”. But the concept directly it is connected by concept “force”. Force of authority, the pole of force, armed force, and also the force of spirit, the force authority, the force of morals and many others expression, using the concept of force, frequently they are encountered in our daily life. By force everything appears that that it produces change in peace in the space and time. Therefore the determination the force it coincides by the determination reason. Hence productive forces exist the reason - attractors human activity. Development (motion forward) always it occurs in the conditions some limitations. In its totality they are realized as production the relation people. People strive to remove these limitation. This process and there is, in essence, progress. However, in each the specific moment the time the limitation they represent by itself necessary the condition existence society. Contradiction between by the tendency to remove the limitation and them by the observance it is solved through the establishment the institutes authority. Authority it directs its forces on the observance of the expedient limitations. It appears the equilibrium forces. And although the force of the order frequently they adapt by authority for the guarantee indicated conditions, nevertheless the main body the authority it is connected basic by the purposes (by attractors) society. Reasons the evolution of society, established in its time by Aristotle, they appear hidden by variables - by the attractors any stochastic ensemble.
^ Tatiana G. Tourkina (St-Petersburg State University, Russia) On the Problem of the Yoruba Traditional Ruling Models: History and Evolution
The paper is devoted to specialities and features of the political system of the Yiruba till pre-colonial time. By Pre-colonial period there were several types of governmental systems at the Yoruba settlements which were not appeared one from another. According to the Yoruba well-known tradition, ruler (“father”, “master”) and especially sacred one was a personification of the political constitution, symbol of the community well-being, mediator between the people and ancestors. Nevertheless in reality power and political functions of even the sacred rulers were various. Institute of “tsars” at the diverse places of the Yorubaland was in different position concerning other ones and the ruler not always had power over the other political forces. According to the Yoruba materials it can be founded the special norm: the more powerful political constitution was governed the crowned ruler the more power functions were controlled with under-monarchic institutions ( so-called “secret societies”, chiefs and titled nobility, and so on.). Ancient traditional power institutions didn’t absorb into the “monarchy” and palatial organization due to the fact that they are differing with ability for vertical adaptation. These institutions come to act as a part of the governmental system and their authorities were increased. Because of very versatile mentality of the Yoruba it was possible don’t take the innovations as a change or violation of social norms. Thus both the high level institutes, mediate and basic ones developed in common during the very long term and they supported each other in the context of single hole. Historical dynamics and major items of evolution and perspectives of such systems in Yorubaland will be analyzed in the report.
^ Sergey V. Tsirel (VNIMI, St. Petersburg, Russia) The Problem of Hyperbolic Growth of World Population
One of the mysteries of the history of humanity is the hyperbolic growth of the world population (N) witnessed since prehistoric times up to 1960s expressed by N=A/(t0-t). This formula together with the well known interpretation “the number of inventors is in direct proportion with the world population” leads to no less than four questionable conclusions.
1. The whole history of humanity is programmed and t0=2005-2025 as the date of the doomsday (or, cautiously, as the tentative of modernization and change of the law of the population growth) was set long before Christ.
2. The humanity as a whole has represented system for, at least, five thousand years (? at one million years).
3. The efficiency of innovations and fraction of inventors in the humanity have been constant during for the above period.
4. For the same period information propagation in the whole world has been very quick and innovations has been repeated at the same rate.
Detailed analysis of the problem has shown.
1. The approximation is substantially worse than it is shown in most publications. There exist other (less convenient) formulas which for the approximation of the data with the same degree of accuracy.
2. The formulas do not yield the date of the doomsday and would function if the history of the mankind were different.
3. During the 18th-19th centuries with the formation the modern world system the law of population growth has somewhat changed. The change is screened by the quick growth of China population in the 18th century.
4. There exists a number of other mathematical models which demonstrate a similar law of world population growth.
5. The only necessary condition is the intensification of the relative growth speed in process as the number of people in different communities grows.
6. The approximate simultaneity of various civilizations development allows for the choice of the most adequate models.
7. Those models include demographic cycles and increase in intensity of contacts between closely situated communities as their population grows.